At this point, it feels like every week I’m forced to write about “the largest missile-drone attack of the war,” because week after week, Russia seems hell-bent on proving that escalation, not peace, is their only objective. This Sunday, May 25th, was no different. Russia launched another record-breaking attack: 367 missiles and drones struck over 30 cities, killing twelve civilians, including three children. Zelenskyy stated, “These were deliberate strikes on ordinary cities.” And from the reports, that was again true, another Russian wave of attacks across multiple regions, striking apartment complexes and random neighborhoods. The timing also felt deliberate: May 25th was Kyiv Day, a celebration of the capital’s founding in the 5th century. Just another thing that stands against the Russian narrative that Ukraine is “simply Russian” and another obvious attack not just on the Ukrainian people, but on their independence and culture.
Monday, May 26th: As if the last 72 hours of escalatory bombings weren’t enough, Ukrainian intelligence confirmed reports of a potential new Russian offensive. In his evening address, Zelenskyy stated again that there is “no indication that they (Russia) are seriously considering peace or diplomacy,” and that all evidence points clearly toward escalation, not negotiation. Meanwhile, over here in the United States, Trump once again appeared to break from his old pal Putin, commenting specifically on the last three days of record-breaking bombings and stating Putin has “gone CRAZY.” Of course, it wouldn’t be the art of the deal without immediately using the moment to also attack Zelenskyy, claiming “everything out of his mouth causes problems.” This, again, is Trump’s master plan: attack everyone and isolate ourselves.
Tuesday, May 27th: While much of the world focuses on drone strikes and failed diplomacy, satellite images released by Greenpeace revealed something far more ominous: Russia appears to be preparing to restart the seized Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and connect it to its own power grid. The construction of over 50 miles of new power lines near Mariupol suggests Moscow is pushing ahead with its long-term plan to repurpose Europe’s largest nuclear facility for its own energy needs. This would mark the first time in history that a nation at war seized and redirected another country’s nuclear infrastructure. Let that sink in. The plant, still dangerously close to the front and lacking key staff and equipment, is in no shape to be safely restarted. Yet here we are, three years into the war, and Russia is not only holding Ukrainian land but preparing to extract its energy while the West tries to figure out how many more red lines need to be crossed before they do something meaningful.
A satellite image from May 22, provided by Greenpeace, shows what The New
York Times has verified to be several new pylons and an electricity line in
occupied Ukraine. Russia would need several more lines to connect the
Zaporizhzhia facility to its own grid.Credit...Planet Labs, via Greenpeace
Wednesday, May 28th: Russia proposed a second round of peace talks, which is, of course, in response to Trump’s light pressure in recent days. This is standard for them. When the pressure from Trump begins, before it can build into anything meaningful, they quickly pretend as if peace is still their main goal. It’s so obvious I feel dumb even writing it down here, but seeing as this exact thing has played out over the past two weeks, I should document it if nothing else. Regardless, the proposed meeting would again be in Istanbul and is supposed to take place next week. Hopefully, this time it doesn’t devolve immediately into Russia threatening to seize more land, but given their current preparation for another offensive, that seems the most likely outcome.
Thursday, May 29th: In Berlin, Zelenskyy met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and for the first time, it seems Germany is seriously considering crossing a line they’ve long avoided. Merz announced plans to help Ukraine develop new weapons without range restrictions, a pretty promising shift from earlier red lines under Scholz. Zelenskyy once again pushed for Taurus cruise missiles, which have a 500-kilometer range and could be game-changers for hitting behind Russian lines. Merz didn’t outright promise them but called their delivery “within the realm of possibility.” The catch? Training and deployment would take months, so we will have to wait and see. Still, this moment marked Germany’s clearest signal yet that its patience with Russia is finally wearing thin. Maybe it's the constant strikes, or maybe it's watching the U.S. flounder, but something may have finally shifted in Berlin.
Friday, May 30th: Surprise, surprise, Russia still hasn’t delivered their so-called peace memorandum. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Sybiha called them out directly, saying if this next round of Istanbul talks is going to mean anything at all, Kyiv needs to see the Russian proposal before showing up. Pretty reasonable ask, especially considering the last meeting. Instead, Moscow says they’ll only reveal their terms at the meeting itself, which Ukraine rightly sees as a trap, likely to drop some outlandish “terms” and then spin it as Kyiv walking away from peace, which of course will win Trump back over. And in a wild twist, Ukrainian intelligence allegedly hit a Russian marine base near Vladivostok, nearly 7,000 kilometers from the front lines near their border with North Korea. Moscow insists it was just a propane explosion (classic), reports say both personnel and command assets were damaged so regardless, we take those.
The view of the city of Vladivostok in Russia, on June 1, 2021 (Christian
Thiele/dpa via Getty Images)
Saturday, May 31st: Ukraine still hasn’t confirmed whether it’ll even attend Monday’s next round of talks in Istanbul, and honestly, I don’t blame them. Zelenskyy made it clear: no agenda, no advance proposals, no real prep from Moscow then what’s the point why walk into another ambush? Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham visited Ukraine and warned that “the game Putin’s been playing is about to change,” saying the U.S. Senate will move forward with hard-hitting sanctions next week. Trump, on the other hand, downplayed everything, saying Putin and Zelenskyy are both being “stubborn”, again the master at work playing both sides. At this point, Ukraine wants a ceasefire, even a short one, and they’ve offered terms. Russia? Still playing games and is ok losing 1000’s of men every day. So here we are again, stuck waiting to see if Monday’s meeting will be real progress or just another Kremlin PR stunt overhyped by their guy in the White House.
Sunday, June 1st: (written by T R Ullmann/ReasonRiffs)
Ukraine’s operation spider’s web is the most destructive blow
against Russia of the war that has implications far beyond the
Ukraine-Russia conflict.
This audacious strike diminishes Russia’s ability to fire both tactical and
strategic nuclear weapons alike. To quote Russian milblogger Fighterbomber,
“Nobody believed they could hit Belaya; the strike was unexpected and
humiliating.”
With nearly two years of planning-and overseen by
president Zelensky himself- Ukraine’s ubermacht struck with not
only spatial but temporal precision given the talks tomorrow in Istanbul. If
an agreement were to be signed, one would be left to wonder as to whether
operation spider’s web was one of the most decisive actions of the
war.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts a
short-term dip in Russia’s ability to fire kh-101/22 cruise-missiles with an
estimated 23 Tu-95 long range bombers and 12 Tu22m3 bombers badly damaged or
destroyed with 34% of Russia’s total cruise-missile force destroyed. By some
estimates the damage is within the range of $3.4-7 bn marking not only the
single biggest loss for Russia of the war but of any military’s airforce
since world war II.
To put this in perspective the Moskva-the ship sunk by Ukraine early in the
war- cost approximately $1bn. Given Russia has ceased constructing many of
the aircraft destroyed replacements will take at least ten years to
replace.
WIth the strike being conducted clandestinely by a suite
of drones in the back of a truck the 4300km distance of the Ukrainian border
puts the entirety of Russia within Ukraine’s sights. This is an additional
effectual consequence, Russia’s air defense systems, intelligence gathering,
and defensive structures will now need to be diluted across the immensity of
Russia’s landmass. The cost to do so will be staggering, and unlikely to be
within the remit of Russia’s current capabilities. It would therefore be
unsurprising if further attacks of a similar nature were not
conducted.
Russia now knows, nowhere is safe from the reaches of
Ukraine’s ever impressive capabilities.