Hurricane season is coming y'all. Last year it consisted of 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Specifically, Hurricane Helene which devastated…Appalachia?? You don’t really think that hurricanes would come up through the Gulf of Mexico demolishing the mountain region that lines the borders of Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, but it did. Helene was so damaging that the World Meteorological Organization retired the name.
Forecasting Cuts While Forecasts Improve
I know Jordan Peterson doesn’t put a lot of stock in our weather modeling, but 2024 was the most accurate on record, marking a 75% improvement since the 90’s. (The NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicted 17-25 named storms and 8-13 hurricanes.) The NOAA also predicts 2025 to be an “above-normal” hurricane season. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — best known as a finance executive with no background in meteorology — says that with the NOAA models, we are well prepared for hurricane season. So much so that the Trump Admin canceled the 2022-2026 Strategic Hurricane Season Plan. No replacement plan has been provided, leaving a gap in coordinated disaster readiness. Measurements of performance included things like training to state partners on how to handle disasters, disaster mitigation that considers impacts of climate change (a bad word) and the worst of all, a goal of equitable disbursement of disaster relief, which was defined as the goal of providing assistance in a “systemic, fair, just, and impartial treatment of all individuals,” which is basically DEI to the Trump Admin.
How FEMA Becomes the Villain
FEMA staff has been cut by about 20% thanks to DOGE. This includes experienced, senior staff that have been pushed out. The folks at FEMA have been put through it for sure. Last year, when trying to deal with Helene, conspiracies from right wing media consistently undercut their efforts to provide aid. They were accused of not providing enough aid when the initial $750 emergency aid was provided, even though this was just for quick relief and never intended to be all relief provided. Claims from prominent Republicans, like Marjorie Taylor Green stating the government directed the storm to Trump friendly territory using “special weather control” methods caused people that needed aid to become distrustful of FEMA, believing they were there to take their land for lithium mining, they were hoarding resources, or using it to give money to illegal immigrants. FEMA workers had to work with threats of roaming militias too.
Morale at the agency was already low before Trump came into office. Now they are dealing with an executive who sees FEMA as unnecessary. He believes states should bear more of the cost for disaster management with no plan to adjust in place and the most disaster-prone season on the horizon. The Stafford Act passed by Congress set a default cost-sharing arrangement for disaster relief, with 75% provided by the Federal Government and 25% by the State Government. However, this ratio can be adjusted at the President’s discretion. Trump wants to make this a 50/50 split. The contrast couldn’t be sharper: Biden used this same discretionary authority to increase federal aid — even covering 100% of costs for a time after Helene. Trump, on the other hand, is using it to reduce the federal share. So technically, he doesn’t need to change the law — just the precedent. And we’ve seen what he does with precedent.
The Death of BRIC
Trump and the folks at DOGE also canceled all pending BRICs contracts. The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, funded through Biden’s 2021 infrastructure bill, aimed to support disaster mitigation projects. These contracts focused on disaster mitigation like making sure infrastructure was built in a way to withstand or avoid things like hurricanes or floods. I remember being concerned that many of the results from Biden’s infrastructure bill wouldn’t show up until Trump was in office — giving him a chance to take credit for the improvements. What I didn’t expect was for him to cancel the projects outright and pull back the funding. And yet, in true Trump fashion, he’s still taking credit for infrastructure wins made possible by the very bill he gutted. In one viral post circulating on Reddit, users pointed out that Trump touted a newly funded project in Connecticut — one that was clearly funded under Biden’s infrastructure law. It's one thing to cancel the parade, but it's another to show up on the float.
What They are Funding
This is not to say the Trump admin will help no one. Funding has been approved in several states to address wildfires through assistance known as Fire Management Assistance. This sort of aid, known as Fire Management Assistance Grants (FMAGs), is focused on addressing disasters that are actively occurring — providing immediate response support rather than long-term rebuilding or prevention. Necessary for sure, but it’s more expensive to rebuild. Decoupling this with disaster mitigation will be more expensive and damaging in the long run.
So heading into the hurricane season, we have fewer staff at FEMA, less training to states for disaster preparation and response, and mass canceling of projects to improve infrastructure. That’s not all though, the Trump admin is actively denying disaster aid to states as well. Washington was denied FEMA aid in April for damage from a November storm. They are shifting the cost share from Helene to require North Carolina to provide more state funding, and Mississippi had to wait 3 months before they were approved for funding to fix damages incurred during tornadoes in March.
A FEMA mobile command center in Mexico Beach / Joe Rondone/USA Today Network Florida
A FEMA mobile command center in Mexico Beach / Joe Rondone/USA Today Network Florida
There are also cracks in the system starting to show. The National Weather Service has had to rely on shifting staff from neighboring offices to get the appropriate tornado warnings out after DOGE cut 20% of the staff. They have also had to cut weather balloon sites, which is a vital source of real time weather data. This information will be vital during hurricane season since they greatly improve short-term store predication and “ground truth” measurements that aren’t provided by satellites.
"Priority" Shift
Of course, if the corruption isn’t blatant, it wouldn’t be the Trump admin. After scouring the recent funding changes, House Dems noticed that in many cases, funding was pulled from blue states while red states saw an increase. Overall, Democratic Senators lost about $436 million that would have been received under Biden’s original plan, while Republican Senators gained about $257 million. In response, GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales simply says, “There is your incentive to be a Republican state… Washington has picked winners and losers for a long time. It's not going to stop picking winners and losers. Better to be on the winning side, than on the losing side.”
Fortunately, I’ve never needed FEMA aid. But most people who do aren't irresponsible — they’re overwhelmed. In Appalachia, people lost their homes to catastrophic flooding. And honestly, who expects to need flood insurance on a mountain? And even if you can rebuild your house, what good is that when your neighbors’ homes are gone, the road is washed out, and the water's still rising?
No one who voted for Trump thought they were voting to defund FEMA. They weren’t signing up for a system that delays aid, cancels prevention, and punishes the states that ask for help.But that's what they got. Helene hit hard, and the White House hit harder.
In 2024, Biden sent help. In 2026, Trump will ask for votes. I hope people remember who showed up when the storm passed.