On Sunday, May 18th, once again, we were reminded exactly who is and isn’t seeking peace. Ukraine endured its largest drone assault since the full-scale invasion began, 273 drones in total, just as President Zelenskyy met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Pope Leo XIV in Rome. The strikes hit Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk, killing one civilian and injuring several others, including, of course, children. And yet, Ukraine is still being told to wait, to be patient, for the peace talks to truly “begin,” while European leaders keep pressing for a ceasefire that Russia seems determined to ignore outright.
Monday, we finally saw the results of Trump’s much-hyped direct call with Putin—and, well, it went about as you’d expect. Trump announced that Ukraine and Russia would “immediately” begin ceasefire negotiations. Again, though, don't forget Ukraine has spent the last two weeks actively pushing for a ceasefire, even sending Zelenskyy to Istanbul just days ago in hopes of meeting Putin face-to-face. Meanwhile, European leaders, reportedly “shocked” by Trump’s refusal to impose new sanctions, are moving ahead with pressure measures of their own, but we have heard this before. Trump, for his part, waved off the idea, saying “there’s a chance of getting something done” and warning that pressing too hard “could make it worse.” Putin is clearly playing for time. And frankly, he plays Trump way too easily. How many times do we have to watch this same routine before even Trump gets tired of being strung along? To borrow a classic line from George W. Bush: “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” Man, how I miss him.
“Now watch this drive” - Dubya
On Tuesday, as expected, Trump’s ceasefire push began to unravel the moment cameras turned off. In Ukraine, there was little surprise. Most saw the Monday call for what it was: another round of empty promises with no timeline, no pressure on Putin, and no meaningful concessions. In cities like Sumy and Kharkiv, under constant bombardment, Ukrainians are increasingly tuning out the “talks” entirely, and man, I cannot blame them. As one woman put it, Trump’s diplomacy was “a theatrical performance that has nothing to do with the reality of trenches or bomb shelters.” Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress the U.S. is helping secure air defenses for Ukraine, though nobody seems willing to give up their Patriot systems. On the battlefield, Russian forces are ramping up their offensives under the cover of “negotiations,” with soldiers warning that this summer could bring a major new push. Zelenskyy, still hoping to keep U.S. ties from fraying further, reportedly sent Trump a proposal for a free-trade deal. But on the front lines, the consensus is simple: if peace is coming, it won’t be thanks to Trump; it will be purely due to the Ukrainian spirit.
By Wednesday, Trump’s new position on Ukraine could not be clearer: not my problem. After months of insisting he alone could end the war, he’s now washing his hands of it entirely, telling Zelenskyy and European leaders they’ll have to figure it out themselves, just days after promising new sanctions if Russia didn’t cooperate. Not only did he back away from that threat, he also pivoted to floating future business deals with Russia, saying the country has “unlimited potential.” As U.S. pressure evaporates immediately due to one phone call, Europe is scrambling to hold the line, but the cracks inside NATO are exactly what Putin has been banking on. And if that wasn't enough, Spain on this same day would see Andriy Portnov, a former Ukrainian politician with extremely deep pro-Russian ties, assassinated in broad daylight, multiple rounds to the back and head, broad daylight, no arrests.
Andriy Portnov, then Deputy Head of Presidential Administration of Viktor
Yanukovych, attends a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine October 31, 2013.
REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
Thursday, May 22nd: While Trump continues backing away from Ukraine, the U.S. quietly took a meaningful step forward, with Congress and Kyiv ratifying a landmark mineral deal that could help jumpstart postwar reconstruction. The agreement gives the U.S. preferential access to Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves, including rare earths, and ties future aid to joint development projects. It’s a play to align long-term economic interests and to prevent countries like China or Russia from dominating Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukrainian officials are calling it a cornerstone for recovery, though plenty of questions remain, from how the fund will be governed to whether idle mining licenses near the front can ever be brought online. But with Russia escalating attacks and Trump openly talking about doing business with Moscow, a grim question hangs in the air: What will be left of Ukraine should Trump continue to give Russia unlimited room to invade?
Friday, May 23rd, in the
largest prisoner exchange of the war so far, 390 Ukrainians came home,
many after years of torture, starvation, and near-total isolation. Families
gathered in the Chernihiv region, waving flags and holding worn photos,
hoping their loved ones would be on the buses. For some, the wait ended in
tears of joy. For others, it was yet another blow of many for this war. One
woman sobbed when her husband failed to appear; another soldier, finally
able to speak to loved ones, reached his mother, “Mom, I was exchanged. I’m
alive.” The deal, agreed to during the recent Istanbul summit, is one of the
few moments of cooperation since the war began. And yet, even this good
news, Ukrainians aren’t allowed to rest, within hours, Kyiv was under
another wave of Russian strikes. It’s hard not to see the pattern: for every
step forward, Moscow takes three steps back.
Saturday, May 24th,
Russia’s
battlefield momentum is slowing, its forces being ground down at
roughly 1,500 casualties a day, with analysts warning Moscow could face
critical shortages of tanks, missiles, and manpower by next year. Is that
why Trump seems so eager to give Putin an off-ramp? Does he realize Russia
can’t sustain this and wants to hand them a way out before total
embarrassment sets in? After his recent call with Putin, the promised
pressure vanished—no new sanctions, no fresh aid, just more talk of trade
deals. U.S. intelligence believes this summer may be Russia’s last real
window to break through before its war machine buckles under years of losses
and sanctions. And yet, instead of tightening the grip on Moscow, Trump
seems apathetic, leaving it to “the Europeans or the new pope,” and letting
Putin control the pace, but for what?