On April 1, 2025, special elections were held in both Wisconsin and Florida, in what many people viewed as an early referendum on Trump’s administration. Though the results were mixed for Democrats, these elections provided hope in trying times and may be a preview of what’s in store for 2026.
In a historically expensive election, Wisconsin voters chose Judge Susan Crawford to fill a seat on the state’s Supreme Court, preserving the court’s 4–3 liberal majority. Crawford defeated former state Attorney General Brad Schimel by an estimated 10-point margin, despite Trump and Elon Musk very publicly backing Schimel, in a state Trump won very narrowly less than 6 months ago.
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford waves during her
election night party after winning the election Tuesday, April 1, 2025,
in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Kayla Wolf)
The 2025 race set a new national record for judicial campaign spending, with expenditures nearing $100 million. A substantial share of that came from prominent donors, most notably billionaire Elon Musk, who contributed over $21 million to support Schimel. Musk also personally campaigned for Schimel, notably handing out million dollar checks to voters and saying the “future of civilization” was at stake.
Crawford’s victory is expected to have broad implications for Wisconsin’s legal landscape. The Supreme Court will likely hear cases in the coming term on abortion rights, redistricting, and electoral policy, all of which could significantly shape the state’s political future.
Turnout was notably high, which is understandable considering the current political climate. While Democrats overperform in special or off-cycle elections, higher turnout usually reduces how much Democrats perform by. This was not the case this time around. Coupled with the results in Florida, this may be a significant indicator that Trump’s honeymoon period is over with.
In the 1st District, Jimmy Patronis successfully retained the seat for Republicans, defeating Democrat Gay Valimont. While Patronis was favored, the race proved to be closer than many had anticipated. With a margin of just over 15 percentage points, this result is a large shift from the 32 point victory Matt Gaetz enjoyed in November. The district, historically a stronghold for Republicans, saw more competitive turnout this time around, lending credence to the idea that the Democratic base is energized and wanting to fight Trump’s sweeping changes.
A similar story occurred in the 6th district, as Republican Randy Fine also claimed victory, defeating Democrat Josh Weil. Fine, a state legislator, was able to secure the seat with a 14-point margin, but the race once again was much tighter than November’s, which saw Michael Waltz win by over 30 points. Fine’s victory was attributed to his strong alignment with local conservative values, particularly on issues like economic development and education. However, once again, Democrats have to feel good about this race. Josh Weil has never held public office before, and once again cut the margin in victory in half from less than 6 months ago.
Florida state Sen. Randy Fine stands for the pledge of allegiance
during opening day of the Florida legislative session on Tuesday, March
4, 2025, in Tallahassee, Florida.Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat/USA Today Network/Imagn Images