What is the probability that a random DGGer reading this completes their weekly political call-to-action?
If I wrote an article advocating that each of us create a 30-second short-form video, it might be a 1% chance. If I tossed in some fiery language and reminded everyone that our country is burning but our hearts are ablaze, that we can only fight fire with fire, we might climb up to 3%. If I counter concerns about efficacy with rational+based+epic logic, we might breach 5%. If I included an inspiring picture of my grade school chess club trophies and chiseled jawline, we would just round to 100%, no die would need to be cast.
But how would we calculate the likelihood that each of our readers completes the call to action if $@#!& mommy knocked over my dresser while cleaning on June 18th, 2013, destroying my trophies?
When we calculate a probability (anytime anyone does) we are making guesses based on some assumptions. For a given reader, I can only guess their probability of activation based on assumptions about the average level of alignment, determination, and skepticism of our readers as a whole.
For you, however, there is one person whose odds you don’t need to guess at.
POV: Ryan is about to show off his chess club trophies
What is the likelihood that you, personally, will do some action this week? No guessing needed: 0% if you resolve not to, or, say, 80% if you resolve to. Either way, you'll have house odds against anyone betting against you, because you know that critical piece of unknown information required. How likely are you to find yourself in the top 20% of pearl divers? I’m assuming this is a safe zero. But how likely are you to find yourself in the top 20% of effective political actors in your city? Secret hint: Around half the people consuming over an hour of political content a day aren’t even voting in the midterms. Maybe a tenth of them have ever contributed outside of voting. Whatever your own level of conviction, it might not take as much as you think.
Conviction alone won’t win you the presidency, but it is more than enough to take the next step, to punch outside your weight class, to be part of something, to have an impact.
You are playing this game with weighted dice. All you have left to do is cast them.