It’s been a whirlwind of developments for anyone following the latest on the Russian war on Ukraine. On March 2, 2025, a brand-new “Coalition of the Willing” took shape in Europe—18 World Leaders set on reinforcing their commitment to Ukraine and outlining their own 4 point plan. That collective effort might have been cause for optimism… until the very next day, when the Trump administration halted aid that’s been crucial to Ukraine’s defense. According to officials, “The order affects more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition in the pipeline and on order,” including equipment and goods that had already reached as far as Poland in some cases.
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, front center, hosts the European
leaders’ summit to discuss Ukraine at Lancaster House, London, Sunday
March 2, 2025. © Justin Tallis, AP
By Tuesday, March 4, 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had already made it clear that the United States accounted for roughly 30% of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities—a massive portion Kyiv simply couldn’t afford to lose. Faced with this new reality, Zelenskyy took steps that many interpreted as attempts to appease the U.S., including hints that his administration was ready to negotiate peace under terms more favorable to Washington’s position.
Without skipping a beat on Wednesday, March 5th, the United States either ignored Zelenskyy’s attempts at mending a bridge—or perhaps got too cozy with the idea of building one with Putin—and announced it would be pausing all intelligence sharing. Which is honestly mind-blowing for a bunch of reasons. For one, Ukraine helped stand up the Joint Analysis Training and Education Centre (JATEC) in Poland—a hub that takes real-time lessons from the conflict and feeds them back into NATO’s playbook. And let’s not forget that the U.S. was providing the majority of Ukraine’s intel to begin with—from satellite imagery to signals intelligence. Cut that off, and we’re leaving Ukraine in the dark at a critical moment in the war.
On March 6, 2025, President Zelenskyy announced an upcoming meeting between Ukraine and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. While he is set to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his team will remain to “work with our American partners. Ukraine is most interested in peace.” That same day, France reaffirmed its commitment to providing intelligence to Ukraine, signaling Europe’s growing role as the U.S. pulls back.
By March 7, the situation deteriorated further when U.S. aerospace firm Maxar Technologies abruptly suspended Ukraine’s access to high-resolution satellite imagery. This critical tool for tracking Russian troop movements was lost just two days after the intelligence-sharing pause, reinforcing doubts about Washington’s commitment. The lack of an official explanation only heightened concerns that the U.S. was deliberately scaling back its involvement.
On March 8, Russia seized the opportunity, launching a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Key energy infrastructure was hit, deepening fears that Ukraine’s already stretched air defenses will struggle without a steady flow of U.S. military aid. Meanwhile, France, Germany, and the U.K. discussed expanding intelligence-sharing efforts to offset the U.S. withdrawal.
It is increasingly clear that while Washington steps back, Europe is stepping in, whether the U.S. approves or not. Meanwhile, Russia remains uninterested in negotiations, escalating attacks as Ukraine scrambles to adapt. With civilian infrastructure, energy grids, and military targets in Moscow’s crosshairs, the Kremlin’s strategy of attrition is in full force.
A more in-depth analysis of Russia’s recent offensives and military strategy can be found here at the Institute for the Study of War.